Publications

Our peer-reviewed research, journal articles, conference proceedings, and working papers.

Problem-solving and innovation.

OEMA’s research serves one purpose – to make the Army’s people an enduring source of competitive advantage. We blend the unique human capital of our people with economic theory and data to conduct rigorous program evaluation, policy analysis, and problem-solving research. Our efforts result in measurably better people programs and policies that help drive Army strategy execution.

PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES

Greenberg, K., Gudgeon, M., Isen, A., & Miller, C., Patterson, R. (2022). “Army Service in the All-Volunteer Era.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 137, Issue 4, Pages 2363–2418 [Link]

Gudgeon, M., Trenkle, S. (Forthcoming / 2022). “The Speed of Earnings Responses to Taxation and the Role of Firm Labor Demand.” Journal of Labor Economics. [Link]

John, M., Barr, A., Smith, A. (2022). “The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence From the 1960’s Through 1990’s.” American Economic Journal-Policy. [Link]

Barr, A., Smith, A. (2023). “Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance.” Journal of Human Resources [Link]

Beshears, J., Choi, James J., Laibson, D., Madrian, Brigitte C., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2022). “Borrowing to Save? The Impact of Automatic Enrollment on Debt.” Journal of Finance. [Link]

Adams, C., Meer, J., Sloan, C. (2022). “The Minimum Wage and Search Effort.” Economics Letters, 212 (3). [Link]

Hoekstra, M., Sloan, C. (2022). “Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls.” American Economic Review, 112 (3). [Link]

Redman, S., Greenberg, K. (2022). “The Effect of Service-Length Obligations on Occupational Selection: Evidence from West Point Graduates.” Defense and Peace Economics. [Link]

Trivedi, A., Jiang, L., Miller, D., Swaminathan, S., Johnson, C., Wu, W., Greenberg, K. (2022). “Association of Disability Compensation with Mortality and Hospitalizations Among Vietnam-Era Veterans with Diabetes.” JAMA Intern Med. [Link]

Barr, A., Eggleston, J., Smith, A. (2022). “Investing in Infants: the Lasting Effects of Cash Transfers to New Families.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137 (4): 2539-83. [Link]

Baird, M., Kofoed, M., Miller, T., Wenger, J. (2022). “Veteran Educators or For-Profiteers? Tuition Responses to Changes in the Post-9/11 GI Bill.” JPAM, 41: 1012-1039. [Link]

Denning, J., Eide, E., Mumford, K., Patterson, R., & Warnick, R. (2022). Why Have College Completion Rates Increased. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. [Link]

Phipps, A., Wiseman, E. (2021). “Enacting the Rubric: Teacher Improvements in Windows of High-Stakes Observation.” Education Finance and Policy, 16(2), 283-312. [Link]

Carter, Susan, P., Skiba, M., Liu, K., Sydnor, Justin F. (2021). “Time to Repay or Time to Delay? The Effect of Having More Time Before a Payday Loan is Due.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. [Link]

Carter, Susan, P., & Wozniak, A. (2021). “Making Big Decisions: The Impact of Moves on Marriage Among U.S. Army Personnel.” Journal of Human Resources. [Link]

Patterson, R., Pope, N., & Feudo, A. (2021). “Timing Matters: Evidence from College Major Decisions.” Journal of Human Resources. [Link]

Kofoed, M., Fawson, C. (2021). “A Neighborly Welcome? Charter School Entrance and Public School Competition on the Capital Margin.” Public Choice, 188, 75–94. [Link]

Haggag, K., Patterson, R., Pope, N., & Feudo, A. (2021). “Attribution Bias in Major Decisions: Evidence From the United States Military Academy.” Journal of Public Economics, 200. [Link]

Bazzi, S., & Gudgeon, M. (2021). “The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions.” American Economics Journal-Applied Economics, 13(1), 235-66. [Link]

Denning, J., Eide, E., Mumford, K., Patterson, R., & Warnick, R. (2021). “Why Have College Completion Rates Increased.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. [Link]

Patterson, R., Murphy, F., Skimmyhorn, William L., & Castleman, B. (2021). “Nudges Don’t Work When the Benefits Are Ambiguous: Evidence from a High-Stakes Education Program.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. [Link]

Olivetti, C., Paaserman, M. D., Salisbury, L., & Weber, Emily A. (2020). “Who Married, (to) Whom, and Where? Trends in Marriage in the United States, 1850-1940.” Centre for Economic Policy Research. [Link]

Gudgeon, M., & Trenkle, S. (2020). “The Speed of Earnings Responses to Taxation and the Role of Firm Labor Demand.” Institute of Labor Economics. [Link]

Gudgeon, M., Bazzi, S., Blair, R., Blattman, C., Dube, O., & Peck, R. (2020). “The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-45. [Link]

Koefed, M., & Gilpin, G. (2020). “Employer-Sponsored Education Assistance and Graduate Program Choice, Cost, and Finance.” Research in Higher Education. [Link]

Carter, Susan, P., & Swisher, R. (2020). “The Effect of Moving Away from Home on Employee Retention: Evidence Among U.S. Army Soldiers.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, 85. [Link]

Greenberg, K., Moore, O., Yankovich, M., & Setren, E. (2020). “Effects of Flipped Classroom Instruction: Evidence from a Randomized Trial.” Education Finance and Policy, 16(3), 363-387. [Link]

Patterson, R., Skimmyhorn, William L., Goldin, J., & Homonoff, T. (2020). “How Much to Save? Decision Costs and Retirement Plan Participation.” Journal of Public Economics, 191. [Link]

Patterson, R., Oreopoulos, P., Uros, P., & Pope, N. (2020). “Low-Touch Attempts to Improve Time Management among Traditional and Online College Students.” Journal of Human Resources. [Link]

Koefed, M., & Jones, T. (2020). “Randomized Peers and Occupation Choice: Evidence from West Point.” Journal of Public Economics, 184. [Link]

Murphy, F. (2019). “Does Increased Exposure to Peers with Adverse Characteristics Reduce Workplace Performance? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in the US Army.” Journal of Labor Economics, 37(2). [Link]

Patterson, R. (2018). “Can Behavioral Tools Improve Online Student Outcomes? Experimental Evidence from a Massive Open Online Course.” Journal of Behavior and Organization, 153, 293-321. [Link]

Koefed, M., & Fraiser, W. (2019). “[Job] Locked and [Un] Loaded: The Effect of the Affordable Care Act Dependency mandate on Reenlistment in the US Army.” Journal of Health Economics, 65, 103-116. [Link]

Koefed, M., & McGovney, E. (2019). “The Effect of Same-Gender and Same-Race Role Models on Occupation Choice: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Mentors at West Point.” Journal of Human Resources, 54(2), 430-467. [Link]

Castleman, B., Murphey, F., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2019). “Marching Across Generations? Education Benefits and Intra-Household Decision-Making.” Journal of Human Capital, 13(3). [Link]

Koefed, M., & Crispin, L. (2019). “Does Time to Work Limit Time to Play? Estimating a Time Allocation Model for High School Students by Household Socioeconomic Status.” Contemporary Economic Policy, 37(3), 407-570. [Link]

Patterson, R. (2018). “Can Behavioral Tools Improve Online Student Outcomes? Experimental Evidence from a Massive Open Online Course.” Journal of Behavior and Organization, 153, 293-321. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., Dudley, W., Lyle, D., Smith, J. (2018). “Who’s the Boss? The Effect of Strong Leadership on Employee Turnover.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. [Link]

Castleman, B., Patterson, R., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “Benefits left on the table: Evidence from the Service Members’ Civil Relief Act.” Economics of Education Review. [Link]

Miller, Brian l., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “I Want You! Expanding College Access Through Targeted Recruiting Efforts.” Education Finance and Policy, 13 (3): 395-418. [Link]

Kofoed, M., McGovney, E. (2018). “The Effect of Role Models on Occupation Choice: Evidence From Randomly Assigned Mentors at West Point” Journal of Human Resources. [Link]

Lieber, E., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “Peer Effects in Financial Decision-Making.” Journal of Public Economics, 163: 37-59. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “Can Information Change Personal Retirement Savings? Evidence From Social Security Benefits Statement Mailings.” American Economics Review: Papers and Proceedings, 108, 93-97. [Link]

Bell, P., Engel, R., Hudson, D., Jamison, J., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “Risk Preferences in Future Military Leaders.” Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, 2 (2): 11-24. [Link]

Ransom, M., & Phipps, A. (2017). “The Changing Occupational Distribution by College Major.” Research in Labor Economics, 45. [Link]

Koefed, M. (2017). “To Apply or Not to Apply: FAFSA Completion and Financial Aid Gaps.” Research in Higher Education, 58(1), 1-39. [Link]

Mayer, J., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2017). “Personality Attributes That Predict Cadet Performance at West Point.” Journal of Research in Personality, 66, 14-26. [Link]

Mayer, John D., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2017). “Psychological Predictors of Cadet Performance at West Point.” Journal of Research in Personality, 66: 14-26. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., Greenberg, K., & Walker, Michael S. (2017). “The Impact of Computer Usage on Academic Performance: Evidence from a Randomized Trial at the United States Military Academy.” Economics of Education Review, 56: 118-132. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2017). “Much Ado About Nothing? New Evidence on the Effects of Payday Lending on Military Members.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99 (4): 606-621. [Link]

Koefed, M., & Clelan, E. (2017). “The Effect of the Business Cycle on Freshman Financial Aid.” Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(2), 253-268. [Link]

Patterson, R. (2017). “Computers and Productivity: Evidence from Laptop Use in the College Classroom.” Economics of Education Review, 57, 66-79. [Link]

Skimmyhorn William L., Mary, A., Davies E., Mun, David W., & Alum, A. (2016). “Assessing Attributes that Predict Cadet Performance at West Point.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 66, 14-26. [Link]

Skimmyhorn William L., Mary, A., Davies E., Mun, David W., & Alum, A. (2016). “Assessing Attributes that Predict Cadet Performance at West Point.” The Journal of Economic Education, 66, 14-26. [Link]

Koefed, W. (2016). “Comparing Military and Civilian Household Finances: Descriptive Evidence from Recent Surveys.” Journal of Consumer Affairs, 58(1), 1-39. [Link]

Skimmyhorn, William L. (2016). “Assessing Financial Education: Promising Evidence From Boot Camp.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8 (2):322-343. [Link]

Skimmyhorn, William L., Evan, Davies R., Mun D., & Mitchell, B. (2016). “Assessing Financial Education Methods: Principles vs Rules-of-Thumb Approaches.” Journal of Economic Education, 47(3): 193-210. [Link]

Autor, David H., Duggan M., Greenberg, K., & Lyle, David S. (2016). “The Impact of Disability Benefits on Labor Supply: Evidence from the VA’s Disability Compensation Program.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8 (3): 1-39. [Link]

Carter, Susan P. (2015). “Payday Loan and Pawnshop Usage: The Impact of Allowing Payday Loan Rollovers.” Journal of Consumer Affairs, 50(2), 471-483. [Link]

Lyle, David S., Smith, John Z. (2014). “The Effect of High Performing Mentors on Junior Officer Promotion in the US Army.” Journal of Labor Economics, 32 (2): 229-258. [Link]

Causey, Marlin W., Steele, Scott R., Farris, Z., Lyle, David S., Beitler, Alan L. (2012). “An Assessment of Different Scoring Systems in Cirrhotic Patients Undergoing Non transplant Surgery.” American Journal of Surgery, 203: 589-593. [Link]

Autor, David H., Duggan, M., & Lyle, David S. (2011). “Battle Scars? The Puzzling Decline in Employment and Rise in Disability Receipt among Vietnam Era Veterans.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101(3), 339-44. [Link]

Engel, R., Gallagher, L., & Lyle, David S. (2010). “Military Deployments and Children’s Academic Achievement: Evidence from Department of Defense Education Activity Schools.” Economics of Education Review, 29 (1): 73-82. [Link]

Lyle, David S. (2009). “The Effects of Peer Heterogeneity on the Production of Human Capital at West Point.” American Economic Journal (Applied), 1 (4): 69-84. [Link]

Lyle, David S. (2007). “Estimating and Interpreting Peer and Role Model Effects from Randomly Assigned Social Groups at West Point.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (2): 289-99. [Link]

Lyle, David S. (2006). “Using Military Deployments and Job Assignments to Estimate the Effect of Parental Absences and Household Relocations on Children’s Academic Achievement.” Journal of Labor Economics, 24 (2): 319-50. [Link]

Acemoglu, D., Autor, David H., & Lyle, David S. (2004). “Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Mid-Century.” Journal of Political Economy, 112 (3): 497-551. [Link]

PROFESSIONAL JOURNAL ARTICLES

“The Army Marketing Program, AR 601-208.” OEMA. 2021. [Link]

“The Army Marketing Program, DA-PAM 601-208.” OEMA. 2021. [Link]

Colarusso, Michael J., Heckel, Kenneth G., Lyle, David S., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2016). “Starting Strong: Talent-Based Branching of Newly Commissioned U.S. Army Officers.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v9: April 2016. [Link]

Wallace, Roy A., Colarusso, Michael J., Hall, Andy O., Lyle, David S., & Walker, Michael S. (2015). “Paid to Perform – Aligning Total Military Compensation with Talent Management.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v8: June 2015. [Link]

Schneider, C., Lyle, David S., & Murphy, Francis X. (2015). “Framing the Big Data Ethics Debate for the Military.” Armed Forces Journal, April 2015. [Link]

Bukowski, R., Childress, J., Colarusso, M., & Lyle, David S. (2014). “Walking the Walk – Creating an Effective Regional Alignment Strategy for the U.S. Army.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v7: November 2014. [Link]

Colarusso, M., & Lyle, David S. (2014). Senior Officer Talent Management, Fostering Institutional Adaptability. Strategic Studies Institute. Carlisle, Pennsylvania: U.S. Army War College Press. [Link]

Wallace, Roy A., Lyle, David S., & Smith, John Z. (2013). “A Framework for Restructuring the Military Retirement System. Strategic Studies Institute, July 2013. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2010). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy: Employing Talent.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v6: May 2010. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2010). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy for Success: Developing Talent.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v5: March 2010. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2010). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy: Accessing Talent: The Foundation of a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v4: February 2010. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2010). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy: Retaining Talent.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v3: January 2010. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2009). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy: Talent: Implications for a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v2: November 2009. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Colarusso, M. (2009). “Towards a U.S. Army Officer Corps Strategy: A Proposed Human Capital Model Focused Upon Talent.” Strategic Studies Institute, Officer Corps Strategy Monograph Series, v1: April 2009. [Link]

Wardynski, C., Lyle, David S., Mohr, William E. (2008). “Developing an Engineer Leader Technical Competency Strategy: Accessing, Developing, Retaining, and Employing Talent.” Engineer, April-June 2008. [Link]

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

Carter, Susan P., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2018). “Can Information Change Personal Retirement Savings? Evidence from Social Security Benefits Statement Mailings.” AEA Papers and Proceedings, 108: 93-97. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., Smith, Alexander A., & Wojtaszek, C. (2017). “Who Will Fight? The All-Volunteer Army after 9/11.” AEA Papers and Proceedings. 107 (5): 415-419 [Link]

Carter, Susan P., & Miller, B. (2015). “Analysis of Army Veteran Unemployment Benefits and Transition Assistance.” The Supply Chain for Middle-Skill Jobs: Education, Training, and Certification Pathways at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. [Link]

Autor, David H., Duggan, Mark G., & Lyle, David S. (2011). “Battle Scars? The Puzzling Decline in Employment and Rise in Disability Receipt among Vietnam Era Veterans.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101 (3): 339-344. [Link]

Dabkowski, M., Huddleston, S., Kucik, P., & Lyle, David S. (2011). “Shaping Senior Leader Officer Talent: Using a Multi-dimensional Model of Talent to Analyze the Effect of Personnel Management Decisions and Attrition on the Flow of Army Officer Talent Throughout the Officer Career Model.” Proceedings of the Informs 2011 Winter Simulation Conference, December, 2011. [Link]

Dabkowski, M., Huddleston, S., Kucik, P., & Lyle, David S. (2010). “Shaping Senior Leader Officer Talent: How Personnel Management Decisions and Attrition Impact the Flow of Army Officer Talent Throughout the Officer Career Model.” Proceedings of the Informs 2010 Winter Simulation Conference, December, 2010. [Link]

WORKING PAPERS

Phipps, A. (2022). “Does Monitoring Change Teacher Pedagogy and Student Outcomes?” Brown University Annenberg Institute: EdWorkingPapers. [Link]

Patterson, R., Skimmyhorn, William L. (2021). “How do Behavioral Approaches to Increase Savings Compare? Evidence for Multiple Interventions in the U.S Army.” Wharton Pension Research Council Working Paper. [Link]

Frakes, M., Gruber, J., & Justicz, T. (2021). “Public and Private Options in Practice: The Military Health System.” NBER Working Papers. [Link]

Greenberg, K., Greenstone, M., Ryan, S., & Yankovich, M. (2021) “The Heterogeneous Value of a Statistical Life: Evidence from U.S. Army reenlistment Decisions.” NBER Working Papers. [Link]

Greenberg, K., Pathak, P. A., & Sönmez, T. (2021). “Mechanism Design meets Priority Design: Redesigning the US Army’s Branching Process.” NBER Working Papers. [Link]

Barr, A., Kawano, L., Scerdote, B., Skimmyhorn, William L., & Stevens, M. (2021). “You Can’t Handle the Truth: The Effects of the New GI Bill on Higher Education and Earnings.” NBER Working Papers. [Link]

Barr, A., Bird, K., Castleman, B., & Skimmyhorn, William L. (2019). “A Comparison of Post Secondary Outcomes for Army Service Members, Veterans, and Civilians.” NBER Working Papers. [Link]

Carter, Susan P., & Wozniak, A. (2018). “Making Big Changes: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 24300. [Link]